Sunday, December 11, 2005

iPod Came, iPod Saw, iPod Conquered

Ladies and Gentlemen of the Class of 2006, buy Apple stock.

If I could offer you only one tip for the future, Apple stock would be it.

Industry analysts claim that two patent issues (one with Microsoft, the other with Creative Labs) might cause consumers, under the auspices of legal uncertainty, to hesitate on the iPod.

My own arms-length "research" today is evidence that these concerns are ungrounded and the result of far removed, macro level, ivory tower analysis.

Two weeks before Christmas at two separate Apple stores in the heart of Silicon Valley, the iPod nano has sold out.

In black. In white. In 4 GB. In 2 GB.

Wow. What's an mp3 pirate who enjoys making impulse purchases to do?

Apple has had months to prepare for the holiday rush. The iPod nano has been out for just as long. They must have actuarial math geeks on the payroll locked in a room somewhere calculating supply side economics. Still, there's a shortage in technology obsessed Northern California. That means stellar revenues and, why I'm making a stock trade tomorrow, stellar profits.

No, Professor Nash, they're not restricting supply to artificially stimulate demand either. Not only is there no genuine competitor in the market to wage war with, but the good has risen to the level of a status symbol. People buy the iPod, in part, to own the brand. The device has pervasively reach a level that consumers are not able to think of digital music without it. Have you ever heard of someone shopping around for an mp3 player recently that wasn't manufactured by Apple? (Do I get at least a 3.4 on the economics, Vronsky?)

Apple is king.

As strange as ecstacy tripping shadow dancers are, Steve Jobs is cash money this December.


At 4:37 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Apple has almost tripled in the last year because of the ipod....I don't know how much room the stock price hasleft to grow.... You may have missed the party my friend.

At 8:29 PM, Blogger SLS2L(@YLS) said...

let us hope not...

if i can turn a quick 10-15%, i'll jump ship.

At 11:28 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

While I think you're probably right anwyay on the Apple stock tip, I'd be a little worried about the nano selling out for other reasons--namely a shortage of some significant material in their supply chain. The supply of previous Ipods was restricted by how fast they could get their suppliers to manufacture those special hard drives. There could be the same kind of thing going on here, though I'm not sure of what goes into making the nano and whether it could be limited by some production factor somewhere along the line. Just a thought.

At 7:18 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

10-15 percent should be no problem for a volitile stock like this.....Good Luck!


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